Tag Archives: new home sales

Slower Market Means Homebuyers Have “Newfound ability to negotiate”

SOURCE: NWMLS

KIRKLAND, Washington (November 6, 2018) – Seven months of steadily rising housing inventory
reversed course in October when Northwest Multiple Listing Service brokers added the fewest new
listings since February, according to a new report. MLS members believe the onset of wintry weather and
transition to the holiday season are factors, but suggested the slower pace also signals improving
conditions for house-hunters.

“After months of inventory growth that more than quadrupled the number of homes buyers have to
choose from, things got back on a seasonal track with new listings and total supply falling in October,”
said Robert Wasser, a director with Northwest MLS, when comparing those metrics with September.
“Buyers are catching on to their newfound ability to negotiate. For the first time since 2012, closed sales
system-wide rose from September to October,” noted Wasser, a branch manager with Windermere Real
Estate in Bellevue.

Northwest MLS members added 8,865 new listings to inventory last month in the 23 counties it
encompasses, down from September’s volume of 10,458, but up 4.7 percent from the year-ago total of
8,466 new listings. Compared to September, last month’s number of total active listings shrunk nearly 6.7
percent, but year-over-year inventory rose 33.2 percent, from 13,680 to 18,223 offerings.

Brokers generally welcomed the bump-up in inventory.

Real estate veteran Mike Grady, the president and COO of Coldwell Banker Bain, commented on the
current “win-win” conditions. “We’re entering that time of year when historically the market slows a bit
as we head into the holidays. Buyers continue to see an improving market compared to last year with the
inventory increasingly to 2.4 months of supply in King County, compared to the year-ago figure of less
than a month (0.98),” he stated.

Area-wide there is nearly 2.3 months of inventory, slipping from more than 2.5 months in September, and
improving on the year-ago figure of about 1.5 months of supply.

The year-over-year gains in supply, while notable, are still “way off from a balanced market that provides
five to six months of inventory,” Grady remarked, adding, “Contrary to recent media reports, the sky is
not falling,” he emphasized, pointing to rising prices and strong jobs reports as factors for a positive
outlook. (The State Employment Security Department reported Washington gained 4,500 jobs in
September.)

“Home prices in King County are up nearly 8.6 percent year over year, so we’re still experiencing
significant appreciation,” Grady stated. Given continued reports of hiring by companies in the Puget
Sound region and recent increases in inventory, he expects homebuyers will continue entering the market,
adding, “And sellers can still expect to get good prices — all this without the frenzy. A win-win,” he
proclaimed.

Key Indicators for Western Washington Housing Still Rising, But Brokers Detect Slowdown & Uncertainty

Source: NWMLS

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Nov. 6, 2017

KIRKLAND, Washington (November 6, 2017) – Early seasonal snow and questions swirling around the
tax plan unveiled last week by House Republicans could make the usual seasonal slowdown more
pronounced, say industry leaders from Northwest Multiple Listing Service. For October, however, key
indicators trended upwards.

Pending sales rose nearly 8 percent from a year ago, closed sales were up 5.2 percent, and prices jumped
about 8.2 percent, with 14 counties reporting double-digit gains. Even the number of new listings
improved on the year-ago total.

Northwest MLS figures for the 23 counties it serves show members added 8,466 new listings to inventory
during October, outgaining the year-ago total of 7,575 by 11.8 percent. Buyers outnumbered new listings,
with 10,586 of them having their offers accepted. That number of pending sales was up nearly 8 percent
from the same month a year ago.

“The challenge for buyers actually isn’t lack of choice, it is the rapid pace of sales,” suggested Ken
Anderson, president/owner of Coldwell Banker Evergreen Olympic Realty.

“The market in Thurston County has never been better for sellers, and they’re getting the message,”
Anderson remarked. His analysis revealed a 10-year high for sellers coming to market during October.
“These savvy sellers are not waiting until spring to sell. They are taking advantage of today’s great
market and making their move now,” he reported.

Buyers may find themselves in a quandary as the year winds down as they contemplate limited supply,
possible upticks in interest rates and tax reform. Last week’s announcement of a provision in a GOP tax
proposal to cap the mortgage interest deduction is concerning to buyers, brokers and builders.

“Imagine if the proposed plan to cap the mortgage interest deduction at $500,000 is approved in a market
that is starved for homes and where the median price [for a single family home in King County] is now
$630,000,” said O B Jacobi, president of Windermere Real Estate. “Homeowners may be less likely to
sell because they would be giving up their grandfathered tax credit on their current home. That’s fewer
homes for sale in a market where we really need them,” he stated, adding, “There could also be a flood of
new buyers trying to purchase before the plan is passed, adding to the already hyper-competitive market
conditions.”

The president of the National Association of REALTORS® also weighed in, saying details are currently
under review, but stated, “Eliminating or nullifying the tax incentives for homeownership puts home
values and middle class homeowners at risk, and from a cursory examination this legislation appears to do
just that.”

Northwest MLS data show 66 percent of single family homes sold so far this year (Jan. – Oct.) in King
County had selling prices of $500,000 or higher.

New and Existing Home Sales Remain Solid

Source: Michelle Wicketts, Senior Loan Originator, Axia Home Loans

 

Existing Homes Sales hit 10-year highs, the National Association of REALTORS reported. January Existing Home Sales surged by 5.69 million annualized units, up 3.3 percent from December to highs not seen since February 2007. All major regions across the nation saw gains, with the exception of the Midwest. The median existing home price rose 7.1 percent from January 2016. Overall inventory of existing homes remained low, however, at just a 3.6-month supply.

New Home Sales rebounded in January. The Commerce Department reported New Home Sales rose 3.7 percent from December to an annual rate of 555,000. The increase was below the 566,000 expected, but it comes after a 7 percent decline in December. Sales also were up 5.5 percent from January 2016. The median sale price was up 7 percent from a year ago. Inventories were unchanged at a near-normal 5.7 months’ supply.

For those in the market for a new or existing home, home loan rates remain in historically low territory despite the volatility in Stock and Bond markets over the last few weeks.

If you or someone you know has any questions about current home loan rates or products, please don’t hesitate to contact me.

Michelle Wickett
Senior Loan Originator
Axia Home Loans
Phone: (360) 791-0513

Spring Home-Buying Season Gets an Early Start

Source: RISMedia

Housing is set to smash records in February, with realtor.com® forecasting both the fewest days on market since the recession and the month’s highest list prices—an early start to the spring home-buying season, says realtor.com Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke.

“The spring buying season is off to a booming start,” Smoke says. “Not only is the season starting a month early, February is also expected to see the fastest-moving inventory in a decade, as well as the highest home prices the month has ever seen. Homebuyers, take note: This year is shaping up to be even more of a seller’s market than last year.”

Data from realtor.com indicate the median list price will be $250,000 in February—a record-setter—and listing inventory will be up 2 percent from January to 425,000. The median age of inventory for February, in addition, will be 91 days, a 5 percent dip from both January 2017 and February 2016.

Based on the data, the hottest markets in terms of median age of inventory will be Vallejo-Fairfield, Calif. (33 days), San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, Calif. (27 days) and Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas (44 days).

RDC_Hotness_Index_Feb17

For more information, please visit www.realtor.com.

For the latest real estate news and trends,

bookmark RISMedia.com.

Home Prices Climb in Unseasonable Winter

Source: RISMedia

It has been an unseasonably hot winter in housing as home prices hike higher, according to Clear Capital’s recently released Home Data Index (HDI) report, showing national quarterly home price growth at 0.9 percent.

Regional quarterly price growth, per the report, was mixed: 0.7 percent in the Northeast, an increase; 0.8 percent in the Midwest, a decrease; and 1.0 percent in the South and West, unchanged. Home prices in 16 of the top 50 largest metropolitan areas—which contain one-third of the nation’s housing stock—have moved past bubble-era peaks. The result, according to Clear Capital Vice President of Research and Analytics Alex Villacorta, is a majority-shift toward positive equity.

“Following several rounds of healthy, peak-season summer growth, winter gains thus far this season have remained relatively healthy across much of the country,” says Villacorta. “As prices have continued to climb in the long term during the post-housing crash, the large portion of the housing market that has been frozen in negative equity has shrunk significantly—meaning that an increasingly large portion of previously underwater homeowners may now have the option of entering the market.”

The market in Portland, Ore., which saw the highest home price growth in the nation in 2016, continues to rank at the top of metropolitan areas measured in the report, growing 2 percent quarter-over-quarter. Another booming market, however—San Jose, Calif.—saw negative quarterly price growth, down 0.3 percent. Hartford, Conn., saw identical negative growth.

Forty percent of homeowners who bought a house during the bubble will regain equity by the end of this year, according to the report, provided prices mirror 2016 movement.

“While the expected spring housing boost is still months away, an influx of fresh new demand on the market could further boost growth potential later this year—as long as there are no other shocks to the market,” Villacorta says.

Source: Clear Capital

For the latest real estate news and trends, bookmark RISMedia.com.

2017 to See Slight Slowing of Home Price Movement

Source: RISMedia

Home Price Gains Strong in South and West

Source: RISMedia

Data released for June 2016 shows that home prices continued their rise across the country over the last 12 months.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.1 percent annual gain in June, unchanged from last month. The 10-City Composite posted a 4.3 percent annual increase, down from 4.4 percent the previous month. The 20-City Composite reported a year-over-year gain of 5.1 percent, down from 5.3 percent in May.

Portland, Seattle, and Denver reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities over each of the last five months. In June, Portland led the way with a 12.6 percent year-over-year price increase, followed by Seattle at 11.0 percent, and Denver with a 9.2 percent increase. Six cities reported greater price increases in the year ending June 2016 versus the year ending May 2016.

Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month gain of 1.0 percent while both the 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite posted a 0.8 percent increase in June. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index recorded a 0.2 percent month-over-month increase, and both the 10-City Composite and 20-City Composite posted 0.1 percent month-over-month decreases. After seasonal adjustment, nine cities saw prices rise, two cities were unchanged, and nine cities experienced negative monthly prices changes.

“Home prices continued to rise across the country led by the west and the south,” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “In the strongest region, the Pacific Northwest, prices are rising at more than 10 percent; in the slower Northeast, prices are climbing a bit faster than inflation. Nationally, home prices have risen at a consistent 4.8 percent annual pace over the last two years without showing any signs of slowing.

“Overall, residential real estate and housing is in good shape,” he continued. “Sales of existing homes are running at about 5.5 million units annually with inventory levels under five months, indicating a fairly tight market. Sales of new single family homes were at a 654,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate in July, the highest rate since November 2007. Housing starts in July topped an annual rate of 1.2 million units. While the real estate sector and consumer spending are contributing to economic growth, business capital spending continues to show weakness.”

Quicken Loans vice president Bill Banfield offered the following comments on the report:

“The strong home price growth in much of the country, and meteoric rise in the West, is led by a continued lack of homes available for sale. While homeowners welcome rising prices, it could begin to hinder new buyers if affordability comes into question – especially with home prices rising twice the speed of inflation in much of the country.”

For more information, visit www.spglobal.com.

2016 Home Sales Increasing Twice as Fast in Counties with Low Hazard Risk

Source: RISMedia

The recently released ATTOM Data Solutions 2016 U.S. Natural Hazard Housing Risk Index found that home sales in the first six months of 2016 increased 4.2 percent from the same time period a year ago in the bottom fifth of U.S. counties with the lowest level of natural hazard risk — more than twice the 1.9 percent increase in the top fifth of U.S. counties with the highest level of natural hazard risk.

More than 3,000 U.S. counties were indexed based on risk of six natural hazards: earthquakes, floods, hail, hurricane storm surge, tornadoes and wildfires using data collected by ATTOM’s neighborhood research portal www.homefacts.com. ATTOM also analyzed home sales and price trends in more than 800 counties with at least 100 single family home sales in the first six months of 2016. Those 800 counties — which combined have more than 70 million single family homes and condos — were divided into five equal groups (quintiles) based on the natural hazard risk index and assigned to one of five risk categories: Very High, High, Moderate, Low, and Very Low.

“While price and affordability along with access to jobs are the primary drivers in local markets with strong increases in home sales activity in 2016, it’s evident from this data that natural hazard risk does make a difference to homebuyers and investors who are active in this housing market,” says Daren Blomquist, senior vice president at ATTOM Data Solutions. “Even among the subset of counties where the median price is below the national median as well as among the subset of counties where home prices are still affordable for average wage earners, there is a consistent trend of stronger increases in home sales volume compared to a year ago in the lowest-risk markets for natural hazards compared to the highest-risk markets.”

Counties with highest natural hazard risk
Among the 804 counties analyzed for home sales and price trends, those with a Natural Hazard Housing Risk Index in the Top 5 highest were Oklahoma County, Okla.; Monroe County, Fla. (Key West); Cleveland County, Okla. (Oklahoma City); Nevada County, Calif. (Truckee); and Lake County, Calif. (Clearlake).

Among 78 larger counties with at least 5,000 home sales in the first six months of 2016, those with the highest risk index were Oklahoma County, Okla.; Riverside County, Calif. (Inland Empire of Southern California); Collier County, Fla. (Naples); Miami-Dade County, Fla.; and Santa Clara County, Calif. (San Jose).

Counties with lowest natural hazard risk
Among the 804 counties analyzed for home sales and price trends, those with a Natural Hazard Housing Risk Index in the Top 5 lowest were Milwaukee County, Wisc.; Kewaunee County, Wisc. (Green Bay); Racine County, Wisc. (Racine); Knox County, Maine; and Kenosha County, Wisc. (Chicago metro area).

Among larger counties with at least 5,000 home sales in the first six months of 2016, those with the lowest risk index were Cuyahoga County, Ohio (Cleveland); Lake County, Ill. (Chicago area); Kent County, Mich. (Grand Rapids); Maricopa County, Ariz. (Phoenix); and Montgomery County, Penn. (Philadelphia metro area).

Home values and home prices lower in lowest-risk counties
In the 161 counties in the top quintile for natural hazard risk (Very High Risk), there were a total of 21 million single family homes and condos representing 30 percent of all homes and condos in the 804 counties analyzed. In the 161 counties in the bottom quintile for natural hazard risk (Very Low Risk) there were a total of 10 million single family homes and condos representing 15 percent of all homes in the 804 counties analyzed.

The average estimated market value for homes in the lowest-risk counties was $187,291 — 33 percent below the average estimated market value for homes in the highest-risk counties: $279,570.

The median sales price of single family homes and condos sold between January and June 2016 in the lowest-risk counties was $156,245 on average, 39 percent below the median sales price in the highest-risk counties during the same time period: $255,160.

Price appreciation stronger in highest-risk counties over past five years
Median home prices in the first six months of 2016 have increased an average of 6.5 percent compared to a year ago in the highest-risk counties compared to a 3.2 percent average increase in the lowest-risk markets during the same time period.

Median home prices in the first six months of 2016 are up 42.4 percent compared to the first six months of 2011 (near the bottom of home prices) in the highest-risk counties, while prices are up 23.8 percent during the same time period in the lowest-risk counties

10-year price appreciation, homeowner profits stronger in lowest-risk counties
Median home prices in the first six months of 2016 are up 9.5 percent from the same time period 10 years ago in the lowest-risk counties compared to a 1.9 percent increase compared to 10 years ago in the highest-risk counties.

Furthermore, homeowners in the lowest-risk counties have gained an average of 27.8 percent in home value since purchase while homeowners in the highest-risk counties have gained an average of 20.7 percent since purchase.

Home sales and price trends by type of natural hazard risk
Over the past five years, increases in home sales volume has fallen below the overall national average in counties with the highest risk of earthquakes, hurricane storm surge, wildfires and floods while counties with the lowest risk for those natural hazards have seen home sales volume increase at a faster pace than the national average over the past five years.

Conversely, home sales activity over the past five years has been stronger than the national average in markets with the highest risk of tornadoes and hail while markets with the lowest risk for those natural hazards have seen below-average increases in home sales activity.

View the full report here

Hottest Summer for Housing in 10 Years

Source: RISMedia

Confirming a record-breaking summer, the residential real estate market has kept the temperature up with the hottest July in a decade, according to new data on inventory and demand on realtor.com®. Homes for sale in July are moving two percent more quickly than last year as prices continue to hit new record highs.

“The best spring in a decade has transitioned into the decade’s hottest summer,” says Jonathan Smoke, chief economist of realtor.com. “Pent-up demand left over from two years of tight supply against the backdrop of mortgage rates near three year lows have encouraged buyer activity at a time when sales usually begin to decline. While prices are higher as a result of the strong demand and limited supply, the lower mortgage rates are neutralizing the impact on purchasing power.”

The median age of properties on realtor.com in July is expected to be 68 days, one day faster than last year but three days slower than last month, a normal seasonal shift. July typically sees inventory age increase as the level of inventory peaks for the year and sales begin to decline.

The median home was listed for $251,000, seven percent higher than one year ago and one percent lower than last month. While that is the first price decrease since January–typical for the seasonal shift–it is a record high for July.

For-sale housing inventory is still growing on a monthly basis, and will soon peak for the year. However, total inventory remains lower than one year ago and the estimated 500,000 new listings expected at the end of the month will once again fail to bring enough relief to buyers looking for the right home.

“The confluence of fast-moving inventory and high prices for sellers combined with strong purchasing power for buyers will be hard to repeat in future summers,” says Smoke.

Key Statistics:

  • Median age of inventory is estimated to end at 68 days, down two percent from last year and up five percent from last month.
  • Median listing price for July should reach a record high of $251,000, a seven percent increase year over year and a one percent decrease month over month.
  • Listing inventory in July is expected to show a one percent increase over June. However, inventory should still show a decrease of five percent year over year.
  • com’s Hottest Markets receive 1.4 to 2.7 times the number of views per listing compared to the national average. In terms of supply, these markets are seeing inventory move 17-37 days more quickly than the rest of the U.S. The hottest markets are seeing inventory movement slow down slightly as the median age increased by two days on average from June.

RDC_Hotness_Index_072916

For more information, visit www.realtor.com.

Hottest Summer for Housing in 10 Years

Source: RISMedia

Confirming a record-breaking summer, the residential real estate market has kept the temperature up with the hottest July in a decade, according to new data on inventory and demand on realtor.com®. Homes for sale in July are moving two percent more quickly than last year as prices continue to hit new record highs.

“The best spring in a decade has transitioned into the decade’s hottest summer,” says Jonathan Smoke, chief economist of realtor.com. “Pent-up demand left over from two years of tight supply against the backdrop of mortgage rates near three year lows have encouraged buyer activity at a time when sales usually begin to decline. While prices are higher as a result of the strong demand and limited supply, the lower mortgage rates are neutralizing the impact on purchasing power.”

The median age of properties on realtor.com in July is expected to be 68 days, one day faster than last year but three days slower than last month, a normal seasonal shift. July typically sees inventory age increase as the level of inventory peaks for the year and sales begin to decline.

The median home was listed for $251,000, seven percent higher than one year ago and one percent lower than last month. While that is the first price decrease since January–typical for the seasonal shift–it is a record high for July.

For-sale housing inventory is still growing on a monthly basis, and will soon peak for the year. However, total inventory remains lower than one year ago and the estimated 500,000 new listings expected at the end of the month will once again fail to bring enough relief to buyers looking for the right home.

“The confluence of fast-moving inventory and high prices for sellers combined with strong purchasing power for buyers will be hard to repeat in future summers,” says Smoke.

Key Statistics:

  • Median age of inventory is estimated to end at 68 days, down two percent from last year and up five percent from last month.
  • Median listing price for July should reach a record high of $251,000, a seven percent increase year over year and a one percent decrease month over month.
  • Listing inventory in July is expected to show a one percent increase over June. However, inventory should still show a decrease of five percent year over year.
  • com’s Hottest Markets receive 1.4 to 2.7 times the number of views per listing compared to the national average. In terms of supply, these markets are seeing inventory move 17-37 days more quickly than the rest of the U.S. The hottest markets are seeing inventory movement slow down slightly as the median age increased by two days on average from June.

RDC_Hotness_Index_072916

For more information, visit www.realtor.com.