Tag Archives: Local Market Index

Home buyers still competing for sparse inventory in Western Washington, driving up prices – especially for sought-after condominiums

Source: NWMLS

KIRKLAND, Washington (February 5, 2018) – “The Seattle area real estate market hasn’t skipped a beat
with pent-up demand from buyers is stronger than ever,” remarked broker John Deely in reacting to the
latest statistics from Northwest Multiple Listing Service. The report on January activity shows a slight
year-over-year gain in pending sales, a double-digit increase in prices, and continued shortages of
inventory.

Deely, the principal managing broker at Coldwell Banker Bain in Seattle and a board member at Northwest
MLS, noted a shift in the ratio of pending sales to new listings in King County.
Member brokers added 6,805 new listings of single family homes and condominiums to the system-wide
database last month for a gain of about 4.6 percent from a year ago. During the same period, they reported
7,820 pending sales. In King County, the number of new listings outgained pending sales for the first time
since September:

 

“Sellers that have put their properties on the market early this year have less competition and are seeing
multiple offers. Open houses are experiencing heavy traffic with hundreds of potential buyers attending,”
reported Deely.

For the MLS overall, last month’s 7,820 pending sales marked a slight increase compared to January 2017
when members reported 7,724 mutually accepted offers, a gain in of 1.24 percent. Not all areas reported
increases. Of 23 counties served by Northwest MLS, eight counties, including three in the Puget Sound
region (King, Kitsap and Snohomish), reported fewer pending sales than a year ago. In King County, where
acute inventory shortages exist in many neighborhoods, pending sales dropped 7.5 percent and closings
dropped 18.5 percent.

“The decline in sales last month can’t be blamed on the holidays, weather or football. It’s simply due to the
ongoing shortage of housing that continues to plague markets throughout Western Washington,” said OB
Jacobi, the president of Windermere Real Estate.

With January’s additions, the number of total active listings at month end stood at 8,037 homes and condos,
down nearly 17.6 percent from a year ago when the selection totaled 9,750 listings. Measured by months of
supply, there was only about 1.5 months overall, well below the 4-to-6 month level many industry experts
use as a gauge of a balanced market.

NWMLS 2017 Statistical Report on Pacific Northwest Real Estate Activity

Source: NWMLS

The NWMLS 2017 Annual Statistical Report is now available. Highlights include:

  • Closed Sales: Northwest MLS brokers reported 99,345 closed sales valued at more than $46.5 billion.
  • Median price: In 2017, the median price for closed sales of single family homes and condos system-wide was $370,000. By county, the median ranged from $133,000 in Ferry Co. to $562,000 in King Co.
  • New listings: MLS members added 114,297 new listings during the year, a slight gain (+1,040) over 2016.
  • Months of supply: Inventory, as measured by months of supply, was well below the level of a “balanced market” all year, with less than one month of supply near many urban job centers.
  • New construction: Newly-built homes accounted for about 19 percent of sales during 2017. The median price for new construction single family homes was $475,000; for new condos it was $552,900 (new condos in downtown Seattle fetched more than $1.2 million)
  • View the comprehensive 2017 Statistical Review & Highlights Report (39 pages)

Brokers may view NWMLS data one hour before it is published to the NWMLS website and released to subscribers or the media. Please do not share the report with the media until officially released by NWMLS.

 

Thank you,
Northwest Multiple Listing Service

11430 NE 120th St, Kirkland, WA 98034

425-820-9200

The Profile: Thurston County Statistics & Data

Updated November 2017

First published in 1982, The Profile is a compilation of statistics, trends, analyses and comparisons for Thurston County and its jurisdictions. Since its inception, The Profile has developed a reputation as a comprehensive and reliable resource for a wide variety of users needing current, accurate data for the region. The Profile is updated each fall.

AcknowledgementsThurston Regional Planning Council wishes to thank the many public and private agencies, and their staff, that have provided data and information used in The Profile. Some of the agencies contributing to The Profile include:

  • Washington State Office of Financial Management
  • U.S. Census Bureau
  • U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • Washington Department of Employment Securities
  • Washington State Superintendent of Public Education
  • Northwest Multiple Listing Service

Complete data sources are included with each table. While TRPC strives to provide the most accurate and timely data available, it cannot guarantee, and is not responsible for, the reliability of data originating from other institutions.

Archives

Thurston Regional Planning Council published The Profile as a printed document between 1982 and 2013. During that time period, TRPC continued to use the latest technologies and information to make the document a leading resource for data on Thurston County. To see how The Profile — and the data included — have evolved during its 30-plus year history, explore The Profile archives.

Key Indicators for Western Washington Housing Still Rising, But Brokers Detect Slowdown & Uncertainty

Source: NWMLS

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Nov. 6, 2017

KIRKLAND, Washington (November 6, 2017) – Early seasonal snow and questions swirling around the
tax plan unveiled last week by House Republicans could make the usual seasonal slowdown more
pronounced, say industry leaders from Northwest Multiple Listing Service. For October, however, key
indicators trended upwards.

Pending sales rose nearly 8 percent from a year ago, closed sales were up 5.2 percent, and prices jumped
about 8.2 percent, with 14 counties reporting double-digit gains. Even the number of new listings
improved on the year-ago total.

Northwest MLS figures for the 23 counties it serves show members added 8,466 new listings to inventory
during October, outgaining the year-ago total of 7,575 by 11.8 percent. Buyers outnumbered new listings,
with 10,586 of them having their offers accepted. That number of pending sales was up nearly 8 percent
from the same month a year ago.

“The challenge for buyers actually isn’t lack of choice, it is the rapid pace of sales,” suggested Ken
Anderson, president/owner of Coldwell Banker Evergreen Olympic Realty.

“The market in Thurston County has never been better for sellers, and they’re getting the message,”
Anderson remarked. His analysis revealed a 10-year high for sellers coming to market during October.
“These savvy sellers are not waiting until spring to sell. They are taking advantage of today’s great
market and making their move now,” he reported.

Buyers may find themselves in a quandary as the year winds down as they contemplate limited supply,
possible upticks in interest rates and tax reform. Last week’s announcement of a provision in a GOP tax
proposal to cap the mortgage interest deduction is concerning to buyers, brokers and builders.

“Imagine if the proposed plan to cap the mortgage interest deduction at $500,000 is approved in a market
that is starved for homes and where the median price [for a single family home in King County] is now
$630,000,” said O B Jacobi, president of Windermere Real Estate. “Homeowners may be less likely to
sell because they would be giving up their grandfathered tax credit on their current home. That’s fewer
homes for sale in a market where we really need them,” he stated, adding, “There could also be a flood of
new buyers trying to purchase before the plan is passed, adding to the already hyper-competitive market
conditions.”

The president of the National Association of REALTORS® also weighed in, saying details are currently
under review, but stated, “Eliminating or nullifying the tax incentives for homeownership puts home
values and middle class homeowners at risk, and from a cursory examination this legislation appears to do
just that.”

Northwest MLS data show 66 percent of single family homes sold so far this year (Jan. – Oct.) in King
County had selling prices of $500,000 or higher.

Seattle Leads an “Unstoppable” Housing Market

Source: RISMedia

Home prices grew in the latest S&P CoreLogic/Case-Shiller Indices, up 6.1 percent year-over-year in August, compared to 5.9 percent in July. The increase is against-grain in an economy gaining at a lesser pace, says S&P Dow Jones Indices Chairman of the Index Committee and Managing Director David M. Blitzer.

“Home price increases appear to be unstoppable,” Blitzer says. “Most prices across the rest of the economy are barely moving compared to housing. Over the last year the consumer price index rose 2.2 percent, driven largely by energy costs. Aside from oil, the only other major item with price gains close to housing was hospital services, which were up 4.6 percent. Wages climbed 3.6 percent in the year to August.”

Is there an end in sight? According to Blitzer, home prices have come back since the downturn—and then some—but how long they sustain their trajectory remains to be seen.

“The ongoing rise in home prices poses questions of why prices are climbing and whether they will continue to outpace most of the economy,” says Blitzer. “Currently, low mortgage rates, combined with an improving economy, are supporting home prices. Low interest rates raise the value of both real and financial long-lived assets.

“The price gains are not simply a rebound from the financial crisis,” Blitzer says. “Nationally and in nine of the 20 cities in the report, home prices have reached new all-time highs; however, home prices will not rise forever. Measures of affordability are beginning to slide, indicating that the pool of buyers is shrinking. The Federal Reserve is pushing short-term interest rates upward and mortgage rates are likely to follow over time, removing a key factor supporting rising home prices.”

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index’s 10-City Composite rose 5.3 percent year-over-year, up from 5.2 percent in July, while its 20-City Composite rose 5.9 percent year-over-year, up from 5.8 percent in July. Month-over-month, the 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite both rose, 0.5 percent and 0.4 percent, respectively.

Of the 20 cities analyzed for the Index, Las Vegas, Nev., San Diego, Calif., and Seattle, Wash., came out on top, with prices up 8.6 percent year-over-year in Las Vegas, 7.8 percent in San Diego and 13.2 percent in Seattle.

NWMLS: Housing Market Still Active, With Overall Direction “Positive”

Source: NWMLS

KIRKLAND, Washington (Sept. 7, 2016) – Home sales in Western Washington continued to outpace
year-ago activity, but member-brokers at Northwest Multiple Listing Service say persistent inventory
shortages are constraining activity.

Despite a sparse selection in many areas, an expected summer slowdown, and “appraisal conundrums,”
Northwest MLS members notched 11,898 pending sales during August, eclipsing the same month a year
ago by 1,295 transactions for a 12.2 percent gain. There were 8,628 pending sales in the four-county
Puget Sound region — the best August for mutually accepted offers since 2005 when members tallied
8,874 sales.

Brokers added 11,411 new listings to the Northwest MLS database during August, but they presented
offers for even more buyers (11,898) to keep inventory below two months of supply. At month-end, there
were 18,336 active listings in the MLS system, a decrease of 11.6 percent from a year ago, resulting in
only 1.9 months of supply. (Four to six months is generally considered to be a “neutral” or balanced
market for buyers and sellers.)

“The market remains just as intense as July,” observed J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO at John L. Scott,
Inc. “The best opportunity for homebuyers to find a home will be in the next 60 days,” he suggested,
explaining the number of new listings coming on the market is likely to drop by 50 percent each month
between November and February. “We expect a repeat of conditions from last winter when every available
home that came on the market in areas with a shortage of inventory received quick action.”

“Buyers in the Seattle area are plentiful in all price ranges, but the entry-level housing demand continues
to be the highest,” reported John Deely, principal managing broker at Coldwell Banker Bain. As an
example, he said a recent open house for a condo listing in the South Lake Union area drew more than
100 visitors in a single day. Tech workers continue to dominate the primary buyer demographic, he said,
adding that a significant number of their parents are relocating here to purchase properties close to their
children.

Buyers in most of the 23 counties served by Northwest MLS can expect to pay more than they would
have twelve months ago, with most areas showing double-digit year-over-year price increases. System-
wide, the median price for last month’s 9,767 closed sales of single family homes and condominiums was
$350,000, up more than 11 percent from the year-ago figure of $315,000.

Home Price Gains Strong in South and West

Source: RISMedia

Data released for June 2016 shows that home prices continued their rise across the country over the last 12 months.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.1 percent annual gain in June, unchanged from last month. The 10-City Composite posted a 4.3 percent annual increase, down from 4.4 percent the previous month. The 20-City Composite reported a year-over-year gain of 5.1 percent, down from 5.3 percent in May.

Portland, Seattle, and Denver reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities over each of the last five months. In June, Portland led the way with a 12.6 percent year-over-year price increase, followed by Seattle at 11.0 percent, and Denver with a 9.2 percent increase. Six cities reported greater price increases in the year ending June 2016 versus the year ending May 2016.

Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month gain of 1.0 percent while both the 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite posted a 0.8 percent increase in June. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index recorded a 0.2 percent month-over-month increase, and both the 10-City Composite and 20-City Composite posted 0.1 percent month-over-month decreases. After seasonal adjustment, nine cities saw prices rise, two cities were unchanged, and nine cities experienced negative monthly prices changes.

“Home prices continued to rise across the country led by the west and the south,” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “In the strongest region, the Pacific Northwest, prices are rising at more than 10 percent; in the slower Northeast, prices are climbing a bit faster than inflation. Nationally, home prices have risen at a consistent 4.8 percent annual pace over the last two years without showing any signs of slowing.

“Overall, residential real estate and housing is in good shape,” he continued. “Sales of existing homes are running at about 5.5 million units annually with inventory levels under five months, indicating a fairly tight market. Sales of new single family homes were at a 654,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate in July, the highest rate since November 2007. Housing starts in July topped an annual rate of 1.2 million units. While the real estate sector and consumer spending are contributing to economic growth, business capital spending continues to show weakness.”

Quicken Loans vice president Bill Banfield offered the following comments on the report:

“The strong home price growth in much of the country, and meteoric rise in the West, is led by a continued lack of homes available for sale. While homeowners welcome rising prices, it could begin to hinder new buyers if affordability comes into question – especially with home prices rising twice the speed of inflation in much of the country.”

For more information, visit www.spglobal.com.

Seattle Area Among Forbes “2016’s Fastest Growing Areas”

Source: NAR

 

After being overthrown last year by Houston, Austin regains the number one spot as the fastest-growing city in the U.S., according to a new analysis by Forbes. Adding to its allure, Austin boasts booming technology, pharmaceutical and biotech industries as well as low-cost of living.

Read more: The 20 Hottest Housing Markets This Month

Forbes.com compiled its annual list of America’s Fastest-Growing Cities by ranking the 100 largest metro areas and their surrounding suburbs. For its rankings, they factor in population growth for 2015 and 2016, year-over-year job growth for 2015, the metro’s economic growth rate, unemployment, and median annual pay for college-educated workers in the area.

The following cities topped Forbes’ list as the fastest-growing populations and economies (included below with each city’s population growth for 2015 and projected growth rate for 2016):

1. Austin, Texas

2015 population growth rate: 3.15%
2016 projected growth rate: 1.56%

2. San Francisco, Calif.

2015 population growth rate: 1.24%
2016 projected growth rate: 0.77%

3. Dallas, Texas

2015 population growth rate: 2.16%
2016 projected growth rate: 1.58%

4. Seattle, Wash.

2015 population growth rate: 1.68%
2016 projected growth rate: 1.34%

5. Salt Lake City, Utah

2015 population growth rate: 1.05%
2016 projected growth rate: 1.40%

6. Ogden, Utah

2015 population growth rate: 1.64%
2016 projected growth rate: 1.37%

7. Orlando, Fla.

2015 population growth rate: 2.31%
2016 projected growth rate: 2.03%

8. San Jose, Calif.

2015 population growth rate: 1.27%
2016 projected growth rate: 0.93%

9. Raleigh, N.C.

2015 population growth rate: 2.28%
2016 projected growth rate: 1.44%

10. Cape Coral, Fla.

2015 population growth rate: 2.84%
2016 projected growth rate: 2.15%

The Comeback Continues: U.S. Housing Market on the Rise

Source: RISMedia

The U.S. housing market continues to improve as Florida and Arizona enter
their outer range of stable housing activity, according to a recently released
Freddie Mac Multi-Indicator Market Index® (MiMi®). The MiMi purchase applications
indicator improved by nine percent in 2015, its best showing since September 2013.

The national MiMi value stands at 82.7, indicating a housing market that is on
its outer range of stable housing activity, while showing an improvement of
+.51 percent from November to December and a three-month improvement of +1.70
percent. On a year-over-year basis, the national MiMi value has improved +7.65
percent. Since its all-time low in October 2010, the national MiMi has rebounded
40 percent, but remains significantly off its high of 121.7

The most improving states month-over-month were Oregon (+1.66 percent),
New Jersey (+1.62), Arizona (+1.39 percent), Florida (+1.39 percent) and
Missouri (+1.25 percent). On a year-over-year basis, the most improving states
were Florida (+16.59 percent), Oregon (+15.64 percent), Colorado (+14.09 percent),
Washington (+12.58 percent) and Nevada (+12.54 percent).